COLUMBIA – There are plenty of variables that define the wines of a season: the food, the weather and the prices. And this summer, Columbia wine drinkers are looking for lighter pours that won’t lighten their pockets too much.
According to sommeliers and bar owners in the area, heavy reds take a backseat as warm weather rolls in. Past summer trends suggest rosés will dominate glasses again, followed closely by refreshing whites and sparkling bubbles. But Columbia’s “famously hot” summer isn’t the only variable influencing what people are drinking this wine season. Global tariffs are also starting to stir things up.
The Trump Administration put a 10 percent global tariff on imported goods on Feb. 24. There are talks of increasing the tariff to 15 percent.
How rising prices will impact what Columbia drinks this summer remains to be seen. Will it push them toward more affordable wines? Or will seltzers, both alcoholic and THC-infused, see continued gains as consumers veer away from more expensive beverages?
Who will feel it?
Mike Wine-Guy (yes, that’s his legal name), a distributor working for Orsini Wines, said the tariffs are expected to hit “every aspect” of the wine industry.
The wine industry in South Carolina operates on a three-tier system implemented after the Prohibition period. Wine producers cannot sell directly to consumers. Instead, distributors buy the wine from the vineyards and sell it to the retailers, where consumers purchase their wine.
“The last person who feels it is the consumer, but that's only because the person before them felt it,” Wine-Guy said. “And the middlemen felt it. The wineries are feeling it. Everybody feels it.”
Wine-Guy mostly works with family-owned wineries and local establishments, and he finds that without the backing of large chain corporations, tariffs tend to hit them harder. Jessica Williams, the general manager and sommelier at James Beard-winning wine parlor Lula Drake, expressed a similar sentiment. For Williams, the more niche wineries from places like Croatia, Slovenia and Greece will struggle more than the typical French, Italian or Spanish bottle.
“They're able to sell really incredible wines at a price point that's really agreeable to by-the-glass,” Williams said. “And that can be with a tariff included. Now, it pushes it out of range, and it makes it a really high-end glass of wine when it's really not the intention behind it.”
The tariffs affect more than just European bottles. Domestic producers are also feeling the pressure. It isn’t the wine itself that’s the issue – it’s the packaging they put it in. According to the Glass Packaging Institute (GPI), the food and beverage industry imports about 25-30 percent of its glass. Wine-Guy noted that French and Slovenian oaks used for wine-aging barrels and Portuguese and Spanish wine corks may also be subjected to tariffs.
“I think a lot of people have this misconception that, ‘I guess the California wines are all going to be cheaper, and they must be happy about it,’” Wine-Guy said.
The uncertainty of the tariffs is also a source of stress for distributors.
With the sudden shut down of Trump’s first tariffs, the subsequent installation of the latest tax and the potential for a 5 percent raise, the wine industry’s future seems unstable.
Wine-Guy mentioned Trump’s embargo threats against Spain and Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz as adding uncertainty that could affect the industry’s supply chain.
“We finally have a court mandate end of July,” Wine-Guy said. “Theoretically, everything has to stop or whatever, but there's so many loopholes.”
Riding the wave
Due to the impending tariffs, every aspect of the industry is attempting to get ahead. According to Wine-Guy, “you can ride tariffs for a little while” thanks to certain distribution practices. When a case of wine is purchased, it’s likely already in the U.S. and shipped from wherever it’s being stored.
“Whenever tariffs kind of start, people don't realize that if you're buying a case of wine from France, it got to America likely months ago,” Wine-Guy explained. “It's been in a warehouse in New Jersey or somewhere, and that's where it's shipped from.”
But the industry can only ride that wave for so long. The tariffs have already impacted how Lula Drake navigates their menu. Williams noticed how quickly produced wines like rosé, which are meant to expose consumers to a winery’s name early in the market, are seeing a price-point increase. This makes buying and pricing wines difficult.
“You don't want a menu full of $22-$24 glasses of wine,” Williams said.
For Wine-Guy, this isn’t the first time the industry’s experienced tariff concerns. They were a major issue during the first Trump presidency, with most of the tariffs falling on France. COVID drowned it out, but many of the same concerns then are being tackled again.
“The distributors have had to drastically think out what they're doing,” Wine-Guy said. “So, by way of, ‘Oh, do we need to get more wine from this region or do we need to massively stock up here because we want to gamble that maybe this is going to be the next place to get tariffed?’”
Prices set the trends
While local distributors and retailers work together to keep consumers satisfied, the rise in prices has the potential to influence what people are drinking this summer.
Wine-Guy saw something similar when working at a restaurant during the 2008 recession. He found that people still drank about the same amount, but they shifted to something inexpensive and readily available as money grew sparse. And restaurants have to work around more than just wine’s increase in price – foods paired with these drinks could be impacted.
“There's a lot of trends that are going on, but nothing is going to change how we are drinking for the next year more than the price of how much stuff has gone up,” Wine-Guy said.
One source of concern is the popularity of seltzers, even though legislation calling for THC seltzer regulations has the potential to stunt its growth. Popular brands like White Claw and High Noon, as well as an increase in THC beverages, have caused some anxiety in the wine industry, especially when young people championing the alcohol industry are looking for lower-alcohol counts. Paired with the rising bottle and by-the-glass prices, seltzers may turn into the more affordable option.
“You can definitely see somebody pivoting to having three seltzers when they are used to having two glasses of wine because it’s just so much more affordable,” Wine-Guy said.
The specifics aren’t easy to track – which bottles will sell and which won’t may surprise producers and consumers. Tariffs or not, trends bend to the will of the customer.
“I would venture to say that consumers still want to get what they can get for the best quality, for the best price,” Wine-Guy said.
This article was originally published in The Post & Courier, available here.